Things I noticed in the Prior Lake data that don’t mean anything

Homes described as “charming” sold for $80,000 less than homes not described that way.

$491K vs $571K. "Charming," it turns out, is code. n=159

Homes whose listings use the word “oasis” sold for $226,000 more than homes whose listings don’t.

$783K vs $557K · n=101

“Won’t last” homes cost $170K less than the average Prior Lake home. Urgency is starter-home code.

Won't last n=36, avg $404K, avg DOM 23.2. Overall avg $574K

Listings containing the word “dream” sat on the market 22 days longer than listings that didn’t. Overselling has a cost.

57 days vs 35 · n=252

Homes marketed as “paradise” sat 26 days longer than the average Prior Lake listing. Paradise is a warning label.

Paradise n=29, avg DOM 63.8. Overall avg DOM 37.6

“Must see” in the listing actually correlated with selling 4 days faster, not slower. I assumed commands backfired.

Must-see n=115, avg DOM 33.7. No-claim n=2,647, avg DOM 37.8

In Prior Lake, the word “opportunity” correlates with exactly nothing. A word that means “please buy this” and signals nothing.

Opportunity n=353, avg $574K. Overall avg $574K

Prior Lake homes listed “as-is” sold in 22 days on average. Homes listed as “move-in ready” sold in 26. Honest beats aspirational.

As-is n=20, avg DOM 21.7. Move-in ready n=220, avg DOM 25.7

Homes described as “cozy” averaged 2,830 sq ft. Homes described as “spacious” averaged 2,838 sq ft. They’re the same size.

Cozy n=350, avg 2,830 sq ft. Spacious n=1,041, avg 2,838 sq ft

Homes called “quaint” are 461 sq ft bigger than homes called “spacious.”

Quaint n=24, avg 3,209 sq ft. Spacious avg 2,838 sq ft

Listings that promise a “completely updated” home are describing houses built in 1980 on average, 17 years older than the typical Prior Lake home.

"Completely updated" n=26, avg YearBuilt 1980. No-claim baseline 1997

“Newer” homes in Prior Lake were built in 1991 on average, nine years older than homes whose listings don’t claim newness.

"Newer" n=297, avg YearBuilt 1991. No-claim baseline avg 2000

Listings that say “lovingly maintained” describe homes built in 1988 on average, twelve years older than the Prior Lake baseline.

Lovingly maintained n=16, avg YearBuilt 1988. No-claim baseline 2000

Prior Lake listings longer than 900 characters sold for $261,000 more than listings 201 to 500 characters long.

$697K vs $436K. Avg PL listing: 753 characters

Three or more exclamation points in the listing remarks had no measurable effect on anything. Volume is not persuasion.

$570K vs $564K · n=666 / 1,943

Third-quartile homes use more exclamation points than million-dollar homes. Mid-tier tries hardest.

Q1 1.55 per listing. Q3 ($466K to $675K) 2.09. Q4 ($675K+) 1.86

Prior Lake listings that mention the sunrise averaged $1.23 million. Listings that mention the sunset averaged $939,000. Morning people are up $291,000.

$1.23M vs $939K · n=16 sunrise, 112 sunset. Eight claim both, which is a lot of windows

Prior Lake listings that put a word in quotation marks sold for $104,000 more than listings that didn’t. Nobody knows what the quotes were implying.

$682K vs $578K · n=110

The 92 Prior Lake listings that contain a semicolon sat on the market 12 days longer than everyone else. Fancy punctuation makes buyers nervous.

DOM 43.3 vs 31.7 · n=92. Record: 18 semicolons in one listing

The word “waterfall” in a Prior Lake listing is worth $492,000. Sometimes it’s a countertop, sometimes a pond, once it was a shower.

$1.08M vs $588K · n=19. The word pays the same either way

Prior Lake homes described as “nestled” sold for $131,000 more than homes that just sit on their lot. Nobody can say what nestling is.

$712K vs $581K · n=221

The hyphen in “brand-new” is worth $7,688. Prior Lake homes described as “brand-new” sold for that much more than homes described as “brand new.”

$508,566 vs $500,878 · n=45 hyphenated / 106 not

411 Prior Lake listings open with the word Welcome, and those homes sold for $418 more than listings that opened with anything else. The warmest word in real estate is worth $418.

$582,796 vs $582,378 · n=411 / 2,228

In Prior Lake, “updated” homes averaged $498,000, “remodeled” homes $653,000, and “renovated” homes $748,000. Same sawdust, different verb.

$498K / $653K / $748K · n=524 / 115 / 38, exclusive groups. The thesaurus is a pricing tool

In Prior Lake, a “chef’s kitchen” runs $98,000 more than a “gourmet kitchen.” Neither one comes with the chef.

$991K vs $893K · n=62 chef's, 189 gourmet

79 Prior Lake listings ask the reader a question, and those homes sold for $37,000 more than the ones that don’t. It never hurts to ask.

$618K vs $581K · n=79

Prior Lake homes with “wood floors” sold for $78,000 more than homes with “hardwood floors.” Somehow the word “hard” costs $78,000.

$649K vs $571K · n=104 plain wood, 391 hardwood

Prior Lake listings that write out “four bedrooms” instead of typing “4 bedrooms” took six extra days to sell and brought $10,000 less. Numerals close.

DOM 38.9 vs 32.6 · $557K vs $567K · n=296 spelled / 769 numeral

In Prior Lake, “meticulously maintained” homes sold for $166,000 more than “well maintained” homes. Same furnace filters, better adverb.

$626K vs $460K · n=88 meticulously, 127 well

134 Prior Lake listings never use the word “and,” just the ampersand, every time. Those homes sold for $86,000 more than the ones that spelled it out.

$650K vs $564K · n=134 / 1,841

Prior Lake listings that name-drop The Wilds sold for $100,000 more than listings that name-drop Mystic Lake. Golf beats blackjack by six figures.

$611K vs $511K · n=115 Wilds, 42 Mystic, both-mentions excluded

Prior Lake listings with a parenthetical aside (like this one) sold a week faster than listings without one. The fine print moves houses.

DOM 26.3 vs 33.6 · n=390

In Prior Lake, a “new roof” sells the house in 22 days; a “newer roof” takes 29 and nets $28,000 less. The “er” is doing a lot of confessing.

22 days at $517K vs 29 at $490K · n=208 new, 57 newer

Fifteen Prior Lake listings say WOW in all caps. Those homes sold in 12 days, 20 days faster than the rest of town, at the same price as everything else.

DOM 12.4 vs 32.2 · $590K vs $591K · n=15. Small sample. Shouting works

Prior Lake homes advertising an open concept sold for $25,000 less and sat five days longer than homes that kept their walls to themselves.

$568K vs $594K · 36.4 vs 31.6 days on market · n=266

Prior Lake listings that use “…” anywhere in the description sold for $51,000 less than listings that finish their sentences. The ellipsis is doing a lot of work.

$533.7K vs $584.3K · n=97

Prior Lake homes advertising a man cave sold in 19 days, nearly two weeks faster than the average listing. She sheds have come up twice in five years.

19.0 days vs 32.1 town average · n=13. Small sample. She sheds: two mentions since 2021

The average Prior Lake house number is 10,659.

Homes only · n=2,769 sales, January 2021 to July 2026

Homes with “13” somewhere in their house number sold for $195,000 more than homes without. The unluckiest number is apparently pretty lucky.

$761K vs $566K · n=104 / 2,582

Palindrome house numbers (12321, 5445, 7887) sold for $117,000 less than non-palindromes.

$453K vs $570K · n=34 palindromes

House numbers divisible by 11 sold for $35,000 more than house numbers that aren’t.

$605K vs $570K · n=243 / 2,443

Prior Lake homes with house numbers divisible by 7 close 7 days faster than homes whose numbers aren’t.

Div-by-7 n=410, avg DOM 29.7. Not n=2,314, avg DOM 36.9

In Prior Lake, houses with all-even digits in their address sold for $166K less than houses with all-odd digits.

All-even n=92, avg $417K. All-odd n=179, avg $589K. Mixed (89%) avg $583K

Forensic accountants use Benford’s law, which says about 30 percent of house numbers should start with a 1. In Prior Lake it’s 49 percent, and nobody is under investigation.

1,357 of 2,785 start with 1 (48.7%). Benford predicts 30.1%

Feng shui holds that 8 is lucky and 4 is unlucky. Prior Lake complies: house numbers ending in 8 sold for $119,000 more than house numbers ending in 4.

$641K vs $521K · n=205 ending in 8 / 293 ending in 4

In Prior Lake, even house numbers sit on one side of the street, odd numbers on the other, and after 2,785 sales the two sides are $1,739 apart. The street does not pick favorites.

Even $592,207 vs odd $590,468 · n=1,303 odd. A 0.3% gap over five years

For Pi Day we checked the 16 Prior Lake homes with 314 in the house number: they took nine days longer to sell than everyone else.

41.4 days vs 32.0 · n=16

Prior Lake house numbers that count straight down, like 7651 or 4321, sold for $163,000 more than the rest of town. The market rewards a countdown.

$753K vs $590K · n=25. Ascending runs like 1234 were too rare to rate

Mathematicians call 28 a perfect number. Prior Lake houses whose address digits add up to 28 sold for $178,000 more and ten days faster than everyone else.

$768K vs $590K · 22 vs 32 days on market · n=29

Prior Lake homes with a property tax bill ending in exactly 00 took 13 extra days to sell and brought $34,000 less. Buyers apparently don’t trust a round number.

$555K at 44 days vs $589K at 31 · n=61

Prior Lake house numbers with a triple repeat in them, like 5557 or 4440, sold a week faster than everything else.

25 vs 32 days on market · n=56. They also ran $73K over the rest

Prior Lake houses with a prime house number sold for $23,000 less than the composites and took three days longer to do it. Nothing divides into them, including offers.

$570K vs $593K · 35 vs 32 days · n=237

Prior Lake homes built in even-numbered years sold for $30,000 more than homes built in odd-numbered years. Nobody has a theory.

$597K vs $567K · n=1,267 / 1,334

Homes built in a year ending in zero (1970, 1980, 1990) sold for $120,000 more than homes built in a year ending in 8.

$640K vs $520K · n=218 / 229

Homes built in the 2020s averaged $839,000, the highest decade average in Prior Lake on record.

n=247 built 2020 to present. Pre-1950 average: $448K

The oldest Prior Lake home to close in the last five years was built in 1895.

Sold $400K on October 20, 2021

37% of all Prior Lake closings happened on a Friday.

1,018 of 2,724. Every other weekday combined is about even with Friday alone

Tuesday Prior Lake closings averaged $53,000 more than Thursday closings. No explanation is forthcoming.

$608K vs $555K

Homes closing on a Friday the 13th sold for $46,000 less than homes closing on any other day of the year.

$524K vs $570K · n=25. Small sample

37% of Prior Lake sales closed above list price in the last five years.

1,016 of 2,724. Over-asking group averaged 18 days on market

Prior Lake homes listed in December sat on the market 70 days on average. Homes listed in April sat for 27.

Dec n=101, avg DOM 70.3. Apr n=278, avg DOM 27.2. Mar to Jun all under 35

Homes listed during Christmas week closed in 19 days on average, the fastest window of the year.

Christmas week (Dec 22 to 28) n=16, avg DOM 18.7. Rest-of-year avg ~38

Twice as many Prior Lake homes close on the last day of the month as close on the first.

Last-day-of-month n=197. First-day n=96

Prior Lake homes that closed on Halloween sold for $52K less than homes that closed on any other day.

Halloween n=19, avg $523K. Rest-of-year avg $575K

Prior Lake homes that hit the market during the State Fair run sold for $58,000 less than homes listed any other time of year.

$530K vs $588K · n=86 listed during the fair

The old rule says to only eat oysters in months with an R, and Prior Lake homes that closed in R months sold for $29,000 less and took a week longer. The rule holds.

$579K vs $608K · 35.2 vs 27.9 days · n=1,200 no-R closings

Prior Lake homes that closed over MEA weekend went for $83,000 less than the rest of the year.

$509K vs $592K · n=35 closings, Thursday through Sunday of MEA

Prior Lake homes that hit the market during deer opener week sold for $53,000 less than homes listed any other week.

$534K vs $587K · n=32

Prior Lake homes sold in the leap year took nine days longer to sell than homes sold in ordinary years. The extra day had to come from somewhere.

39.7 vs 30.4 days on market · n=466 / 2,202. 2024 vs every other year since 2021

The 23 Prior Lake homes that closed on April 15 got to the closing table ten days faster than the average sale. Nothing moves paperwork like Tax Day.

21.6 days vs 32.1 · n=23

The 27 Prior Lake homes that closed on the Friday before fishing opener averaged $67,000 under the rest of the market and sold 11 days faster. Everyone in that room had somewhere to be.

$525K vs $592K · 21.5 vs 32.2 days · n=27. The paperwork did not stand a chance

Prior Lake homes that hit the market on a Sunday sold for $165,000 more than homes that hit the market on a Saturday. Same weekend, and nobody knows what changes overnight.

$686K vs $522K · n=78 Sundays / 135 Saturdays

Prior Lake homes that closed in the -ber months sold for $1,812 more than homes that closed the rest of the year. September through December have no opinion.

$592,630 vs $590,818 · n=885. A rounding error with foliage

Prior Lake homes priced ending in 900 (like $499,900) sat 9 days longer than homes priced ending in 000. The retail $X.99 trick doesn’t translate.

Ending-in-000 n=1,613, avg DOM 33.8. Ending-in-900 n=834, avg DOM 42.3

Streets named “Road” averaged $194,000 more than streets named “Avenue” in Prior Lake.

$706K vs $512K · n=218 Road / 333 Avenue. Same city

Streets named “Path” closed at 102.1% of asking, the highest markup of any street suffix in Prior Lake.

n=28 Paths. Walking beats driving

Homes on streets with “Lake” in the name sold for $149,000 more than homes on streets without it, including the streets not actually on the water.

$714K vs $565K · n=75 Lake-named

Prior Lake homes on “Boulevard” sat 22 days longer than homes on “Path.”

Boulevard n=38, avg DOM 53.6. Path n=28, avg DOM 24.3. Trail and Circle both ~33 days

The most-sold street in Prior Lake over the last five years is Wilds.

65 closed sales. Runner-up: Deerfield (60)

Prior Lake homes on Panama Avenue sold for $381,000 more than homes on Toronto Avenue. Nobody involved has ever been to either place.

$627K vs $246K · n=15 Panama / 19 Toronto

Prior Lake homes on streets with Hawk in the name sold in 13 days, less than half the town average.

13.1 days vs 32.1 town average · n=19

Prior Lake homes on streets that are just numbers, like 170th and 180th, sold for $164,000 more than homes on streets with actual names. Creativity is not compensated.

$746K vs $583K · n=144 numbered streets

Homes on Fish Point Road sold for $238,000 over the Prior Lake average. The street is named for where the fish bite.

$830K vs $591K town average · n=17

Prior Lake streets with Point in the name sold for $530,000 more than streets with Bay in the name. You want to be the land sticking into the water, not the water.

$940K vs $409K · n=81 Point / 14 Bay. Small sample on the Bays

Homes on two-word streets like Wood Duck and Shady Beach sold for $110,000 more than homes on one-word streets. In Prior Lake you pay by the word.

$676K vs $566K · n=633 two-word

The second-cheapest street in Prior Lake is named Tranquility, where homes average $200,000, about a third of the going rate. Peace remains affordable.

$200K vs $591K town average · n=15. Among 10+ sale streets, only Tower is cheaper

Prior Lake homes on Oak streets sold for $406,000 more than homes on Birch streets. Both are trees.

$695K vs $290K · n=50 Oak / 27 Birch

Prior Lake homes with more bathrooms than bedrooms sold for $224,000 more than homes with more bedrooms than bathrooms. The bathroom is the luxury indicator.

$785K vs $561K · n=236 bath-heavy

Homes without an HOA sold for $126,000 more than homes with one.

$626K vs $500K. Selection bias admitted

Prior Lake homes with a four-or-more-car garage averaged $1,010,000.

n=222. No-garage homes averaged 136 days on market

Subdivisions with “Shores” in the name sold for $376K more than subdivisions with “Hills.”

Shores n=47, avg $850K. Hills n=111, avg $474K. Estates n=198. Woods n=126

Haven Ridge is the fastest-selling subdivision in Prior Lake, at an average of 7 days on market.

34 sales. Rest of town: 36 days avg

Homes called “cozy” that don’t have a fireplace sold in 12 days, the fastest group in the entire dataset.

Cozy + no fireplace n=21, avg DOM 11.9, avg $413K. Cozy + fireplace n=288, avg DOM 29.1

Since 2021, 140 Prior Lake homes have sold with a pool, in Minnesota, in a town named after a lake. They cost $350,000 more than everyone else and took three extra weeks to sell.

$923K vs $574K · 53 vs 31 days · n=140. 111 of the pools are heated

Prior Lake homes where the garage is at least 30% the size of the house sold for $176,000 less and ten days faster than homes where the garage stays under 20%.

$519K vs $695K · 28 vs 38 days · n=425 garage-forward

The first listing video adds $80,000 to a Prior Lake sale price, the second adds another $188,000, and the third subtracts $221,000.

$543K / $623K / $812K / $590K for 0, 1, 2, 3 videos · n=18 with three

Corner lot homes in Prior Lake sold for $85,000 less than everyone else. Two streets’ worth of sidewalk to shovel, priced in.

$514K vs $599K · n=237 corner lots. They did sell three days faster

Prior Lake homes with exactly as many bathrooms as bedrooms sold for $409 less than homes without that symmetry. Not $409,000, just $409.

$591,082 vs $591,491 · n=1,125 balanced

The fastest-selling house style in Prior Lake is the split entry, at 21 days on average. Minnesota’s most apologized-for floor plan beats the two-story by two weeks.

Split entry n=328, 20.8 days, $430K · two-story 36.3, one-level 33.4 · modified two-story 23.2

Prior Lake’s 103 triple threat homes, 3 beds, 3 baths, 3 garage stalls, closed at 100.1% of asking, same as the other 2,682 homes. Three of everything makes you exactly average.

$612K avg · 33 vs 32 days for everyone else · n=103

Among Prior Lake listings with 20 or more photos, every additional photo lines up with about $11,600 in sale price. Nobody tell the photographers.

20-29 photos avg $411K, 60-plus avg $984K · n=54 / 45

Going from zero fireplaces to one adds $184,000 in Prior Lake, one to two adds $222,000, and two to three adds $454,000. At current rates, the fireplace is outearning the kitchen.

$362K / $546K / $768K / $1.22M by fireplace count · 3+ n=128, sat 59 days vs town 32

In Prior Lake, homes on a creek or stream sold more than twice as fast as homes on the lake. The lake gets the prestige; the creek moves.

Creek/Stream n=17, avg DOM 23.5, avg $781K. Lake Front n=214, avg DOM 54.1, avg $1.24M

Lake Front homes whose listings use the word “oasis” closed in 19 days, three times faster than Lake Front homes that don’t.

LakeFront + oasis n=11, avg DOM 19.0. LakeFront overall DOM 54.1

Lake Front homes listed in October sat on the market 115 days on average, more than three times as long as Lake Front homes listed in May.

Oct n=13, avg DOM 115.5. May n=38, avg DOM 33.8

Lake Front homes in Prior Lake were built in 1985 on average, 12 years earlier than the rest of town.

Lake Front n=205, avg YearBuilt 1985. Rest n=2,429, avg 1997

Lake Front listings that use the word “dream” sat 25 days longer than Lake Front listings that don’t. The overclaim penalty compounds at the high end.

LakeFront + dream n=31, avg DOM 79.2. LakeFront no-hype n=110, avg DOM 45.9

Lake Front homes that mention “sunset” sold 15 days faster than Lake Front homes that don’t. West-facing is the hidden variable.

LakeFront + sunset n=54, avg DOM 38.9. LakeFront overall DOM 54.1

New construction is three times rarer on Prior Lake’s lakefront than on the rest of town. Lake lots don’t come up.

Lake Front 4 of 214 new (1.9%). Rest 162 of 2,548 (6.4%)

Among Prior Lake homes with lake frontage recorded, the sweet spot is 100 to 149 feet. They sold for more than homes with 200+ feet. Diminishing returns on frontage.

100 to 149 ft n=31, avg $1.65M. 200+ ft n=20, avg $1.24M. 50 to 99 ft n=76, avg $1.25M

Lakefront on the east half of Prior Lake sold for $257,000 more than lakefront on the west half. Same lake, same water, different longitude.

$1.51M vs $1.25M · n=93 east / 84 west, split at longitude -93.42; Prior Lake shoreline only

The most expensive street name in Prior Lake is Shady Beach, at $1.3 million a home. Neither word is doing what it normally does.

$1.31M avg · n=18, among streets with 15+ sales. Runner-up: Marsh at $844K

The longest word anyone has used in a Prior Lake listing is “multigenerational.” Seventeen letters, eight uses in five years, zero abbreviations.

2,785 listings scanned, 2,639 with remarks · 8 uses. Hyphenated "multi-generational" (19) excluded